Saturday, January 09, 2010

Statistics You Can Live By

As a gene jock, I never had much need for statistics. As long as DNA was linear and I could manipulate it, things were cool. Statistics were best left to the computer geeks who couldn't find their way to the lab much less open an Eppendorf tube.

But even I can take note of the latest FBI Semiannual Uniform Crime Report for the period January thru June 2009. The blather from the gun control crowd has always been that more guns means more crime. Studies have disputed this over the years but with the advent of the messianic Obama administration, we have here the opportunity to carry out an actual hypothesis-driven experiment in near real time. Hypothesis: Radical left-wing "junior" senator from Illinois somehow gets elected to the white house with a vow to "fundamentally transform America". Gee, how long will it take him to get to our guns? Gun and ammo sales will soar. There will be severe ammo shortages. Prices will rise.

Lucky for us firearms enthusiasts, the libtards are too occupied with health care right now to be bothered with the physical distinctions between assault weapons, semi-autos and true full automatic weapons, you know the basics of firearms that the politicos and state-controlled media can never seem to keep straight. Well guess what, the firearms industry is the one area in the current economy that is actually making it big. If you tried to buy a hand gun in early to mid-2009, forget it. Even today, many areas of the country are seeing severe shortages of both guns and ammo. Need ammo? Forget that. They line up at the truck for that, although in my experience things are beginning to ease up but prices are still high particularly for all but the most popular calibers. Our local WalMart gets their truck in on Tuesdays and Thursdays and if you are there when it arrives you can score but the limit is usually five boxes/customer.

The data: Personal gun ownership rose by 2% over the same period in 2008, but murders in January to June 2009 dropped 10%. So where is the increase in murders?

The average street urchin obviously would not feel threatened by the Great One, and they don't buy legally or go through the background checks like the rest of us anyway. Judging by the number of spent casings we see on the pavement on the 10 o'clock news they aren't particularly good shots either so I doubt they spend much time at the range or buying a lot of practice ammo.
A recent Patriot Post Digest sums it up nicely:

"It looks as if a correlation between gun ownership and murder rates exists after all -- but not the one gun-control crusaders claim."........"Granted, correlation doesn't always equal causation, but the number of privately owned guns rose in 2009 by about 2 percent. During the first six months of last year, national instant background checks jumped by 24.5 percent over the first six months of 2008."........."Indeed, gun manufacturer Sturm, Ruger, & Co. reported that first quarter 2009 production skyrocketed by 69.3 percent over first quarter 2008 levels. The most popular guns purchased were those most commonly used for self defense. Hmm, gun ownership translating into personal safety and lower crime rates. Maybe our Founding Fathers were onto something after all."

In times of trouble there are two precious metals to be had; gold and lead. The lead is preferably at the end of a well made cartridge. See you down on the range, and if you want to try my S&W40, be sure to bring your own ammo.


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